Winter is coming: Putin seeks to 'hammer Ukrainians, their power grid, their water supplies'

As renewed diplomatic efforts seek to bring an end to Russia's war on Ukraine, the prospect of a negotiated settlement remains unlikely due to Russia's irreconcilable territorial demands, competing visions of European security and an increasingly unpredictable and pro-Moscow American approach to mediation. For Russia expert Mark Galeotti, Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence and Honorary Professor at University College London's School of Slavonic and East European Studies, Moscow's maximalist vision conceals a more complex negotiating strategy. "The Russian approach is always to sound incredibly bullish and then make any concessions at the very last minute," he explains, suggesting that the Kremlin's uncompromising rhetoric should not necessarily be mistaken for an absolute refusal to negotiate. Yet the territorial dispute over Donbas presents a particularly formidable obstacle. Putin's determination to claim control over the entirety of the region confronts Ukraine's refusal to surrender territory it continues to hold. "That Donbas question is, for me, an intractable one," Galeotti observes, warning that neither side currently appears willing to cede territory necessary for a breakthrough. Whereas conventional diplomacy generally proceeds through discreet negotiations before culminating in political announcements, Trump's approach has effectively reversed that sequence. "Trump makes grand declarations and various people try desperately to make it happen."